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NEW YORK, NY – Professor and Political Scientist Helmut Norpoth accurately predicted Trump’s 2016 victory a full nine months before the election. Today, he says President Trump has a 91% chance of winning in November 2020. Norpoth, a professor from Stony Brook University on Long Island, uses a model that has correctly predicted 24 of 26 presidential elections.
I don’t go by opinion polls, I go by the real polls; I go by what happens in the primary elections and in those primary election, especially in the early ones, Donald Trump did very well and Joe Biden as many of you may have forgotten by now he came in fifth. Now he did much better in another one in South Carolina and from that point on, but these early primaries, these early votes provide a very powerful metric for predicting what is going to happen in November.
Helmut went on to say that he has never seen an individual win an election who placed 5th in New Hampshire.
The primary model used by Helmut Norpoth, with slight modifications, has correctly predicted the winner of all but one of the presidential elections since it was introduced in 1996; it predicted Al Gore in 2000, who lost the electoral vote though winning the popular vote. In recent elections the forecast has been issued as early as January and no later than March of the election year.